I have an idea about what is going to happen today, and it’s making me nervous. I hope that in 24 hours, I am proved wrong and deprived of the privilige of saying, “I told you so,” but I’ll post my thoughts anyway.
Back on November 5, I penned these words:
If you want to lose the 2010 elections, then go ahead and don’t do anything meaningful with your control of government. Unexcited Obama voters and progressives will stay home on election night just like they did in Virginia and change will finally come to Washington—you will be out of power and the Republicans will be back in power.
I was cautioning the Democrats to draw the right lessons from Virginia and New Jersey; that voters (especially the base) want to see strong, progressive action. And if they don’t get it, they will be unenthusiastic, thinking, “well what’s the point?” and will stay home. Unfortunately, at the moment, I am able to say…I told you so.
Martha Coakley is in a much tighter race than anyone imagined possible. Regardless of the outcome, the Republicans will declare it a victory–that if a race like this, for Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat, could be so close in perennially blue Massachusetts, then it’s a clear sign that America is against healthcare reform. But in all likelihood, what we will see tomorrow is that Obama voters have stayed home, while the excited right wing base has risen to their challenge of putting into Congress a tea party candidate from Massachusetts.
We will examine the numbers more closely as a team following this election, but at the moment, no matter what happens, all I can hope is that the Democrats learn what I urged them to remember on the fifth of November–forsake your base at your peril.
