I think the Democrats forgot the golden rule of politics which they themselves devised twenty years ago: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Until unemployment is under control voters will not care about any other issue. After health care, there should not be a single issue that Congress debates until November. It should be job package after job package. If they want to move on financial reform, they do it quietly. If they want to pass cap-and-trade, they do it in a Green Jobs bill. There should not be a single piece of major legislation sent to Obama’s desk that does not have the word “Jobs” in the title.
That being said, I agree with an assessment I read earlier today which says that they have already taken the hit they will take on healthcare and should just pass the damn bill. Failing to pass healthcare will make the Obama administration a lame-duck on domestic issues and they will pay a heavier price come November. But, health care must no longer be the signature issue (and God is that painful for me to say since it is my key-domestic issue). As I see it, there are four ways forward on health care:
1) Demonstrate the Power of the Nuclear Option- Democratic leadership won’t have the spine for this, and I don’t actually think it is necessarily the best option (though it would produce the best bill), but the Democrats could simply say, “Enough. The people elected us to pass this agenda and if the Republicans wish to make use of legislative obstacles, then we will use the tools at our disposal.” Do it quickly. Pass the bill. Then bury the news with a quick onslaught of jobs proposals to change the narrative. In fact, argue that using reconciliation on health care was actually a test case for using it on job measures to prove that Democrats will do what it takes to pass jobs legislation and that Republican obstructionism will no longer be tolerated.
2) Force the Filibuster- This would have been a good idea two months ago. It no longer is. Democrats have taken too long to pass health care and their argument that Republicans are holding up the agenda won’t hold water when Republicans go on the air and say “The President cares more about his political baby of health care than your jobs.” The truth doesn’t matter. Perception does. They can’t win this way.
3) Acknowledge defeat, accept responsibility, give Snowe and Brown the opportunity to be heroes- I think this is the best option the Democrats have from a political standpoint. Barack Obama uses the State of the Union to say, “Health care has become a polarizing issue, but what should not be polarizing is that there are too many uninsured Americans, and too many Americans dying because of our failing system. Both houses have passed a version of health insurance reform, I call on Olympia Snowe and Scott Brown (who right now are considered the two most liberal members of the Senate, Brown voted for Mass. health care reform after all…) to make whatever changes they feel are necessary to this bill, and I call on the Democratic leadership to accept these changes.” Snowe wouldn’t change much. She just wanted the issue to slow down. Brown might, but calling him out and winning his support on this issue (something which shouldn’t be too difficult for a newly elected Senator who would love some national attention and to prove to Mass. that he can deliver for them so they don’t kick him out in three years during a Presidential election cycle). Let them create an open conference committee while the rest of Congress turns to jobs. Pass Health Care in March. After you have passed jobs bills. It’ll be a victory for Brown and Snowe first and foremost, but the Democrats will reap the benefits come November.
4) Pass and Amend- Harry Reid convinces Nancy Pelosi to pass the Senate Bill as-is with the understanding that as soon as it is passed, Harry Reid will introduce a Health Care Reform bill in the Senate which makes the changes they have agreed to in ping-pong. The House and The Senate pass this Amendment immediately following passing the original Senate Bill. It’s messy, but there’s a better chance that Republicans will pass the Amendment seeing that they have already lost the battle on health care, they may be willing to strip the most heinous clauses of the Senate Bill from it (the Nebraska Purchase). Failing to do so once the Democrats give them the option would be risky.
Personally, I support a combination of three and four.
Oh, and no matter what, Barack Obama should accept Scott Brown’s invitation to play basketball. That’s just a given.
